Pour yourself an eggnog and put on some holiday music as I share my predictions for the next calendar year.
As we close out 2024, it’s a time of wonder and excitement. The public and private sectors are going to continue to invest in fiber for its capability, reliability, and versatility. On the government side, certainly there will be some changes to programs and regulatory over the next twelve months, but there are likely to be few dramatic shifts and probably one or two pleasant surprises.
1. LEO satellites will vie for BEAD dollars, but fiber will WIN out.
There’s no doubt it takes time and money to deploy fiber when compared to the relative simplicity of dropping a satellite dish on the roof of a rural home. But states also recognize the need and long-term necessity of higher-speed, future-proof connectivity, so we are seeing places like Maine and New Mexico planning to purchase LEO satellite as a temporary near-term measure to get people connected right away while they undertake the longer-term build out of fiber to provide long-lasting and future-proof communications for every household.
We already know and have seen how fiber can provide 50 Gbps to households today using existing technology and has a clear path to 100 Gbps and faster speeds in the next decade. State broadband offices are taking the long view and a consistent approach to fiber being a multi-generational investment in infrastructure.
2. With the new administration, the BEAD program will experience a relaxation of regulations to accelerate broadband deployment. This will include relaxing labor wage requirements and lessening environmental impact studies as part of BEAD.
One of the biggest knocks against BEAD has been the amount of regulatory requirements incorporated into the program, especially when compared to previous federal programs such as the U.S. American Rescue Plan Act or the USDA’s Rural Utility Service broadband loan program. There will be a clear push to reduce the regulatory burden for federal programs to reduce cost and increase speed of execution. Let’s hope that the new government efficiency folks will take a hard look at this.
3. AI will emerge as the killer app driving broadband investment
The November 19, 2024, Wall Street Journal article, “It Isn’t Just Data Centers – AI’s Plumbing Needs and Upgrade” describes the issue in its first sentence:
“The coming wave of artificial-intelligence usage won’t just strain data centers and power grids – it will also stress the country’s network capabilities.”
A boom in AI data centers translates into a boom for all the gear necessary to make it happen, including increased speed communication within the data center and ultra-low latency broadband between data centers and the rest of the world. This means more fiber to more places and upgrades to existing networks to increase capacity to multi-Terabits-per-second (Tbps) or 1,000 times faster than gigabit speeds on a per strand basis.
4. The reversal of the Chevron doctrine lays the groundwork for appeals courts to rule that fiber broadband is the infrastructure intended by the IIJA for “priority broadband projects.”
Back in 1984, the Supreme Court ruled in the “Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council” case that if Congress had not directly addressed the question at the center of a dispute on how federal agencies interpret laws they administer, a court was required to uphold the agency’s interpretation of the statue as long as it was reasonable.
This interpretation was overturned by the most recent Supreme Court ruling this past summer. Now, the courts will provide their own interpretation of ambiguous wording in disputes instead of agencies getting the last word. Some members of Congress have argued that BEAD was intended to be technology neutral rather than emphasizing the need for “priority” and fiber. We haven’t seen a court case yet, but given the deep pockets of one satellite operator, we might expect that in the future.
5. BABA waivers outlined by NTIA will be adopted by other agencies that fund broadband, including USDA.
Today’s global economy means there’s always something that is sourced or produced outside of our country that we’ll need, and that’s especially true when building high-speed networks. The NTIA Build America Buy America (BABA) waivers provide a common-sense approach on what U.S. produced items should be allowed in federal broadband projects and when adopted by other agencies, would provide consistency across federal broadband projects.
Kevin leads the marketing efforts for Clearfield as Chief Marketing Officer. He joined the fiber company in 2016, leveraging his extensive experience in advanced communications technology, fiber optic systems, and business product marketing. Prior to joining Clearfield, he spent two decades serving in various senior marketing positions at ADTRAN. Before that, he spent a decade at telephone operating company BellSouth, now a part of AT&T, where he worked as the lead broadband product evaluations resource in the Science & Technology department.
Morgan currently serves on the Fiber Broadband Association Senior Council Committee and has also held various leadership positions at the Fiber Broadband Association, including Board of Directors Chair for 2015, 2019, and 2022. Morgan holds an Electrical Engineering degree from Auburn University and an MBA from the University of Alabama.